NFL: Draft Kings Wild Card Report

Playoffs?

Playoffs?!?! That’s right folks. The playoffs are here. This is the time of year when your player pool shrinks, and you won’t be able to go as contrarian as you’d like. However, sometimes eating the chalk isn’t all that bad. In this article, we are going to focus on my favorite plays at each position, along with a fade as well.

QB:

Andrew Luck – $6,400 (LOCK): Luck is a Comeback Player of the Year candidate, and rightfully so. He finished the regular season in the top ten in completion percentage, top five in passing yards, and second in touchdowns. He will be facing a Texans defense that has allowed big plays of 20 yards or more on 14 percent of opponent’s completions. They also have allowed a touchdown rate of over four percent, and just about 20 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Luck is playing behind a top three offensive line which will give him enough time to find open receivers.

Dak Prescott – $5,500 (VALUE): Dak gets a home game this weekend, where he has averaged 20 fantasy points per game. The Seahawks have given up at least 24 points in five of their eight road games this season, to go along with a five percent touchdown rate and 19 fantasy points to opposing QBs. The Cowboys offensive line has been banged up this year, but the Seahawks have not been able to generate much of a pass rush. Look for Prescott to have plenty of time to find his targets.

Nick Foles – $5,400 (FADE): Foles was forced to leave last week’s game with a rib/chest injury, where he missed out on a $1 million incentive bonus because he only played 32 percent of the plays (instead of 33 percent). Rib injuries are tough to play through, especially when you’re facing a defense like the Bears. Chicago leads the league in takeaways, and second in sacks. Philadelphia’s offensive line has been ok, but I don’t think they are a match for Khalil Mack and company.

RB:

Ezekiel Elliott – $9,000 (LOCK): Zeke has the best matchup of all the running backs this week. He led all running backs in rushing yards, and he had career highs in targets and receptions in the passing game. He’s going up against a Seahawks defense that allows 85 rushing yards, 57 receiving yards, and 27 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. The Cowboys offensive line was top ten in run blocking, while the Seahawks defensive line was in the bottom ten.

Gus Edwards – $4,200 (VALUE): Since taking over the lead back duties in Week 11, Edwards has been averaging 83 rushing yards per game. He’ll be going up against a Chargers defense that has allowed 86 rushing yards per game and 29 fantasy points to opposing RBs. Kenneth Dixon will take away some touches, as he will be involved in passing downs. With the Ravens being home favorites, they’ll be looking to feed Edwards to milk the clock late in the game.

Marlon Mack – $6,000 (FADE): For as good as the Colts offensive line has been this year, I’m staying away from Mack in DFS. The Texans give up a slate low 62 rushing yards and 19 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. They are road underdogs, so I would feel more confident in playing Colts players that are involved in the passing game.

WR:

T.Y. Hilton – $7,800 (LOCK): I know this is low hanging fruit, but how can you not take T.Y. in this spot? In the last seven games in Houston, Hilton’s line is 41 receptions, 933 yards, and six touchdowns. The Texans rank sixth worst in the league against opposing WR1, allowing 77 yards per game. Hilton has been battling an ankle injury, but I don’t see that stopping him from having yet another big game against the Texans.

Allen Robinson II – $5,600 (VALUE): While Robinson’s season wasn’t anything to write home about this year, he does have a great matchup against the Eagles league-worst secondary. They allow 90 receiving yards per game to opposing WR1, which is the worst in the NFL. You could pay down $1,200 and go with Taylor Gabriel, but I like Robinson’s target share (22%) and red zone targets (12) in this game.

Keenan Allen – $6,900 (FADE): This Ravens defense has shown that they are for real, and I don’t feel confident starting any of the Chargers in this game. In their Week 15 matchup, Allen was held to just 58 receiving yards on five catches. I love Keenan Allen, just not in this game. I’m staying away.

TE:

Eric Ebron – $5,200 (LOCK): The chalkiest pick would have been to go with Ertz, but I love Ebron in this spot. He faces a Texans defense that has allowed a league-high 18 fantasy points and 72 receiving yards to TEs this year. Ebron leads all TEs with 13 TDs this year. The Colts are underdogs in this game, so expect them to be airing it out early and often.

Mark Andrews – $3,500 (VALUE): After last week’s explosion, everyone will be on the Cowboys’ Blake Jarwin. For just $200 more, I’m taking Andrews in my value slot. Over the last four weeks, Andrews has been second on the team in targets. He has also seen the third most red zone targets this year. I don’t have a ton of conviction in any of the cheaper TEs this weekend, but if I have to pick one, I’m going with Andrews.

By: Chris Kennedy

***All stats provided from Football Outsiders, 4for4, Pro Football Reference, and NFL Next Gen Stats***

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